Why Cyber Monday Sales Are Expected to Reach an All-Time High

Holiday shoppers are projected to spend a record $12 billion to 12.4 billion online on Cyber Monday 2023, according to Adobe Analytics. Cyber Monday caps off the first weekend of the traditional holiday shopping season that begins Thanksgiving Day.

Overall, Adobe projects online sales for the five days between Thanksgiving and Cyber Monday will total $37.2 billion, up 5.4% from the same period a year ago, and will account for 16.8% of total holiday-shopping season sales.  

E-commerce spending got off to a strong start over the weekend, with consumers spending a combined $10.3 billion on Saturday and Sunday, a 7.7% increase from a year ago, according to Adobe. Saturday sales totaled $5 billion and Sunday sales totaled $5.3 billion. E-commerce sales on Black Friday, the day after Thanksgiving, totaled $9.8 billion, up 7.5% from a year ago, and $5.6 billion on Thanksgiving, a 5.5% increase from a year earlier.

Adobe Insights tracks more than a trillion visits to retail e-commerce sites in the United States, 100 million SKUs, and 18 product categories.

Consumers are expected to make significant use of buy now, pay later loans on Cyber Monday. Adobe projects BNPL loans will total $782 million of the day’s online spending, an 18.8% increase from a year ago. BNPL volume has been strong throughout the month of November, totaling $7.3 billion from Nov. 1 through Nov. 26, a 14% increase from a year ago, according to Adobe.  

Mobile users spent $5.6 billion over the weekend, up 12.7% from a year ago. Those sales represented 54% of total online sales, up from 52% a year earlier. In addition, curbside pickup was used in 13.3% of online orders over the weekend, down from 15.6% in 2022. Adobe forecasts curbside pickup will peak from Dec. 22 to Dec. 23 and account for 35% to 40% of all orders. Adobe says it does not expect a major uptick in curbside pickup on Cyber Monday.

In other holiday spending news, Mastercard Inc.’s SpendingPulse reports that in-store and online retail sales for Black Friday were up 2.5% from a year ago. Mastercard’s data excludes automotive sales and are not adjusted for inflation. Mastercard’s report also shows e-commerce sales on Black Friday increased 8.5% from a year earlier, while in-store sales increased 1.1% from a year ago.

“Consumers are navigating the holiday season well and taking advantage of holiday promotions, giving them ample choice as they hunt for gifts for everyone on their list,” Steve Sadove, senior advisor for Mastercard and former chief executive and chairman of retailer Saks Inc., says in a statement. “Consumers are also shopping smarter, using all of their tools–from searching across channels to cross checking on apps and Web sites – to maximize value while they spend time with friends and family.”

Other organizations tracking holiday spending over the weekend also reported strong sales increases. E-commerce platform provider BigCommerce Pty. Ltd. says online merchants using its platform saw a 14% increase in gross merchandise value on Thanksgiving Day 2023 compared to 2022 on a same-store basis. In addition, BigCommerce saw a 5% sales increase on Thanksgiving Day and an 8% increase in the average order value, compared to a year ago.

On Black Friday, BigCommerce merchants saw a 6% rise in gross merchandise value, a 5% increase in total orders, and a 1% increase in average order value on a same-store basis, compared to Black Friday 2022.

BigCommerce bases its holiday-shopping data on a comparison of year-over-year same-store sales metrics, which refers to active stores that have been operating on BigCommerce’s platform for at least one year and represents the applicable period-on-period change that occurred Nov. 24-25, 2022, and Nov. 23-24, 2023.