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CyberSource Corp. predicts that the increase in holiday spending online will be about equal with the rise in volume seen during the same time in 2003, disputing the estimates of some observers that e-commerce traffic growth will be lower this year. Growth last year in the fourth quarter was 25% over the same period in 2002, according to U.S. Department of Commerce surveys. “It appears online sales growth will be very similar to '03,” says Doug Schwegman, director of market and customer intelligence at the Mountain View, Calif.-based gateway for online merchants. “We question that it will be lower.” CyberSource defines the holiday season as coinciding with the fourth quarter. Further, the company predicts the peak day for holiday e-commerce volume will be next Tuesday, Dec. 14. The prediction is based on analysis of current traffic as well as several other facts: that volume is usually highest any way on Mondays and Tuesdays; that consumers like to place orders online after weekend shopping in stores and reading about promotions in the Sunday papers; and that Dec. 20 and 21 are too close to Christmas to allow for reasonably priced and reliable shipping. The company says the peak day is moving earlier. It was Dec. 15 last year and Dec. 17 in 2002. The reason, it says, is that merchants are offering incentives to consumers to place online orders earlier to avoid last-minute shipping logjams. CyberSource handles one out of eight Internet transactions. It processed 300 million transactions through the first nine months of 2004.
