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U.S. online retail sales will continue their steady growth and continue to snare more overall retails sales, suggests the “2024 Online Retail Report” from FTI Consulting Inc. The research forecasts $1.2 trillion in U.S. e-commerce sales this year, up 9.1% from 2023’s $1.1 trillion.
That forecast comes as online sales continue to get more share of overall retail sales, with FTI predicting e-commerce will account for 22.7% of all retail sales in 2024, up from 21.6% in 2023.
“E-commerce sales are setline down to more predictable growth and market-share gains now that the post-pandemic transition is behind us,” the report says.
As for growth in the share of retail sales made online, Washington, D.C.-based FTI says it has improved from nearly flat in the 2021-2022 period, “but [is] decelerating compared to the pre-Covid period and will continue to edge lower over the rest of the decade. Ultimately, we expect U.S. e-commerce market share of total retail sales to plateau near 35% by next decade.”
FTI says several product categories have already reached that saturation point, including toy and hobby, consumer electronics, computer hardware and software, and sporting goods.
Other retail trends are affecting e-commerce, too. More retailers are using their stores as fulfillment centers that can better manage returns and inventory, blending the digital and in-store customer experiences, FTI says. Also, retailers are closing underperforming stores and reducing labor costs. A study from investment bank UBS this Spring predicted as many as 45,000 retail store closures through the next five years, reported Dow Jones.
In related news, commerce consulting firm Red Van formed a partnership with online and in-store commerce provider Shopify Inc. that will see Rev Van offer Shopify services to its clients.
