Payments Under Trump

The new President’s second term will mold the digital payments business in unpredictable ways. Here’s what to expect (we think).

Normally, a U.S. President taking office for the second time would embark on a term whose contours shouldn’t be too hard to predict. After all, we saw what he did, and what happened, in the first term. But there’s nothing conventional, politically or otherwise, about Donald Trump, who this month takes office for the second time following a convincing victory in the November presidential election.

While policy regarding payments would stay in flux for some time in any incoming administration, let alone one under the mercurial incoming president, signs are emerging that could presage significant moves under Trump to slash regulations and unleash the animal spirits of the world’s largest payments industry.

These moves are likely to include reining in activists at the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau and the Federal Trade Commission, which recently introduced a requirement simplifying cancellation of services for consumers (box, page tk), observers say.

‘Delete CFPB’

And such actions could become even more radical, as a tweet last month from billionaire businessman and close Trump adviser Elon Musk indicated. “Delete CFPB,” the terse message read, referring to a federal agency that came into being in 2008 when the country was reeling from a historically deep financial crisis.

Already, close observers say the Trump administration is likely to adopt a more skeptical eye toward efforts in Congress to enact bills such as the Credit Card Competition Act, which seeks to exert more pressure on card interchange rates by requiring a choice for merchants that includes at least one network that isn’t Mastercard or Visa.

The CCCA stood on shaky ground even before the November election, which cost Democrats their majority in the House of Representatives in addition to the presidency.

“The bill creates a political challenge,” notes Scott Talbott, an executive vice president at the Electronic Transactions Association, a Washington, D.C.-based group that represents the payments industry. “It continues to face an uphill climb.”

Or, as one long-term payments consultant, who attended Senate hearings in November on the bill, says: “What is happening is the regulatory world is figuring out whether the consumer is worthy of all the protection that the regulatory environment provides them.”

“In general, this [new] administration is going to be very regulatory hostile,” observes Patricia Hewitt, principal at PG Research and Advisory Services and an unsuccessful Democratic candidate from Georgia this year for the U.S. House of Representatives.

‘A Populist Strain’

What “regulatory hostile” will look like will unfold as the new administration settles in. What is clear is the list of regulations, again mostly from the Biden-era CFPB, will likely become an early target for modification or reversal. Many of these have become rules only this year, including regulations concerning consumer data rights and open banking, as well as measures targeting payments apps like Apple Pay and PayPal.

Observers also expect Rohit Chopra, the bureau’s aggressive director, will either resign or be replaced. Among some payments experts, at least, the betting is he won’t leave of his own accord. But who will replace him is far less clear as the new administration settles in. The CFPB refused to comment for this article.

“People are policy,” notes the ETA’s Talbott. “we’re watching very closely who Trump will appoint. We expect him or her to be less aggressive than Chopra but more aggressive than Trump.”

Others are expecting a much tamer bureau. “It will be kneecapped,” predicts Hewitt. “It will stop doing data analysis. All that will be shut down. It will just get buried and lost. The CFPB has done a lot in 15 years. So now who protects the consumer?”

Meanwhile, a flurry of rulemaking in 2024 will leave a more or less sticky legacy the payments business will have to reckon with whether Chopra stays or goes. Lame duck or not, the CFPB director “seems to be moving forward with new rules,” notes Ben Jackson, chief operating officer at the Innovative Payments Association, a trade association for the payments industry, and author of the Payments 3.0 column in Digital Transactions.

Some of the more potent of these new rules—including strictures for payments apps and regulations governing data rights for the burgeoning activity in open banking—will impact rapidly developing areas promising high growth for the payments industry.

‘A Bipartisan Suspicion’

But observers like Jackson aren’t so sure new management at the bureau will be notably less likely to police the industry than was Chopra. “The industry needs to be careful because there’s a populist strain in the new administration,” he says, adding, under Trump, there is “a lot of suspicion towards big tech. That’s been a bipartisan suspicion.”

That means industry representatives will have to be careful “not to stir up agencies” by assuming they will relax scrutiny, Jackson says.

Talbott at the ETA underscores that point. “We’ve seen a more populist approach from the president-elect since his first term,” he notes. An example cited by other observers is the backing offered for the CCCA by vice president-elect J.D. Vance.

The bill, which has so far fallen short of the votes required to pass, is not a measure likely to attract the support of traditional conservatives, but there’s little that is traditional about the second time around for the new administration.

Introduced in 2022 by Senators Richard Durbin, D-Ill., and Roger Marshall, R-Kan., the CCCA has struggled as just enough Republicans eye its design with suspicion. Now, observers are wondering how much longer that point of view will prevail.

“This isn’t Phil Gramm’s Republican party,” observes Eric Grover, head of the payments advisory Intrepid Ventures, referring to a free-market economist and long-time Texas legislator who left the Senate in 2002.

Crypto’s Momentum

One constituency expressing cautious hope with the onset of a new administration is the backers of digital currency. ”There is an opportunity for [cryptocurrency] to break out, finally,” says Cliff Gray, proprietor of Gray Consulting Ventures, a payments advisory. This sentiment goes far beyond the apparent backing of Musk, who has installed himself as one of Trump’s closest advisors.

Bitcoin, for example, has been on a tear, crashing through the $100,000 mark in value this fall, though solid numbers on actual usage of the coin to buy things prove elusive. Enthusiasts like Gray, however, foresee wider adoption by users and merchants alike as forces in the administration turn a skeptical eye toward established bureaucracies in all industries, payments included.

Digital currency systems are likely to be seen in contrast to the long-stablished card networks, in particular, some observers argue. “Trump and his administration don’t like Visa, but they like crypto,” Gray contends, summing up the situation.

And backers aren’t deterred by the voices of established financial bosses like JPMorgan Chase & Co. chief executive Jamie Dimon, who once threatened to fire any Chase trader found dealing in Bitcoin. “Crypto has matured a lot,” argues Gray, who sees a growing constituency among users and potential users that could appeal to the new president.

Gray isn’t alone in his expectations for digital currency under Trump. “He’s courted the crypto industry. He needed their financial support and banking support,” argues Hewitt. But digital coins for payments is of less interest to the new administration than crypto as an asset, she argues. “You’ll see promotion of crypto, and there will be less rules around it,” she predicts.

‘A Volatile Mix’

All in all, some observers predict the tension between a traditional liberty-minded approach among some in the new administration and the newer, more pugnacious populism among others will make for an unpredictable interplay when it comes to policy.

“I think we’ll have a somewhat volatile mix of two currents,” says Grover. “I don’t think that populist strain is going to go away, but there’s going to be more laissez-faire folks in the administration.”

That could make for some rocky times, especially as Trump works to assert himself, as many say he inevitably will. And, as Grover and others note, “I don’t think Trump has a strong ideological compass.”

Reckoning With Click to Cancel

Consumers irked by the difficulty of unenrolling from some subscription services will get relief May 14, when merchants must be compliant with the Federal Trade Commission’s revised Negative Option Rule, otherwise known as click to cancel.

Merchants, however, have a lot of work to do between now and then.

The rule, finalized in October, mandates that unsubscribing must be as quick and easy as the enrollment process. It also spells out that consumers must know what they are signing up for and that sellers must be able to show that consumers knew what they agreed to before enrolling in a subscription plan. The rule was proposed in March 2023.

“The FTC’s revised Negative Option Rule is a wake-up call for businesses to rethink their approach to user data privacy and transparency,” says Sam Peters, chief product officer at ISMS.online, a U.K.-based compliance-management service.

“With the May 14, 2025, compliance deadline fast approaching, organizations must act swiftly to align with the new requirements,” he says. “While the timeline is tight, it does highlight the importance of prioritizing
consumer rights and trust, and makes this an opportunity for organizations to strengthen compliance practices whilst also enhancing customer trust.”

The 120-day window between the rule’s effective date, Jan. 14, and its compliance date, May 14, will give businesses time to “align their subscription and cancellation process with the new requirements,” says Michael Seaman, chief executive at St. Louis-based payments provider Swipesum. “While this timeframe is generally reasonable, some businesses may remain unaware of the new rule.”

One big concern in recurring payments is churn, the turnover rate of subscribers falling off their lists. One way to counter a potential increase in the churn rate is with proactive messaging.

“It’s also important to point out that organizations should ensure they offer proactive notifications of upcoming renewals and consistent, multichannel messaging to meet these new requirements, but also so they reinforce trust and demonstrate a commitment to meeting regulatory and consumer expectations,” Peters says.

“Those organizations that focus on clarity and transparency in their messaging and use simple, consumer-friendly language to ensure customers understand their rights and options will be in a much stronger position than those that don’t, which could also mean a competitive advantage in the market,” he adds.

Practical help for merchants can come from subscription-services companies like Recurly Inc. and Chargebee, Seaman says. These companies have published content and resources to guide business through compliance, he says, “but the burden is ultimately on the merchant.”

It is unlikely the rule will be rescinded, Seaman says, It has already faced a number of challenges.

The NCTA, an association for the Internet and television industry, along with the Interactive Advertising Bureau and the Electronic Security Association, filed a lawsuit against the FTC in October to stop the rule, though there was no further court action as of December.

“Everyone knows those are some of the hardest services to cancel, customer experience is poor, and overcharges are ridiculous. This [rule] is a good thing,” Seaman says. —Kevin Woodward