U.S. E-Commerce To Approach $500 Billion by 2018, but Physical Stores Will Remain Open

Americans will spend nearly half a trillion dollars on e-commerce in 2018, with 70% of the U.S. population making online purchases, but e-commerce still will not account for even 9% of total retail sales, according to a new global forecast from research firm eMarketer Inc. In contrast, e-commerce will capture 18% of retail sales in the United Kingdom and 16.6% in China in 2018, the top two countries for e-commerce market share.

New York City-based eMarketer estimates that U.S. e-commerce sales, excluding travel and event tickets, will total $305.7 billion this year, up 15.7% from 2013 and represent 6.5% of all retail sales. Some 63% of Americans will make a digital purchase this year. By 2018, e-commerce will have grown to $493.9 billion and account for 8.9% of retail sales.

In other words, showrooming will go only so far with most Americans. “In the case of the U.S., this metric shows the continued strength of brick-and-mortar retail, as well as U.S. consumers’ appetite for purchasing in-store,” eMarketer says in a report. “A majority of U.S. consumers are making purchases online, but more than $10 out of every $11 are still spent in stores.”

China has a smaller share of e-commerce users among its population, currently 27.5%, but they’ll spend an estimated $426.3 billion online this year, up 35% from last year, and account for 10.1% of total retail sales, eMarketer predicts. “This points to the fact that consumers in China who buy online do so often,” eMarketer says. Chinese e-commerce spending will hit $1.01 trillion in 2018, eMarketer forecasts.

British consumers are expected to spend $82 billion this year online, accounting for 13% of U.K. retail sales. The U.K. leads in e-commerce as a share of all retail sales in the 22 countries eMarketer examined. With 73% of U.K. consumers making an online purchase this year, eMarketer expects the country to retain its lead. “This high volume of digital buyers who purchase online often positions the U.K. as the third-largest e-commerce market, despite being only eighth-largest in total retail sales,” says the report. U.K. e-commerce will amount to $125 billion in 2018, the report says.

EMarketer bases its predictions on data from a variety of research firms, governmental agencies, company reports and media outlets.